Shifting alliances in Syria

It’s been a terrible week for the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and its Supreme Military Command (SMC). Its warehouses in northern Syria have been ransacked by rival groups belonging to the Islamic Front, a new player in the bloody battleground where tens of rebel groups are fighting the regime of President Bashar Assad under various banners. Also the Islamic Front had overrun the strategic border crossing of Bab Al-Hawa with Turkey, forcing the head of the SMC, Gen. Salim Idris, to flee. To add to the FSA’s troubles, the United States and Britain decided to suspend shipments of non-lethal aid until further notice.
Since the breakout of the Syrian uprising and until recently, the FSA was the West’s favorite to defeat Assad’s regular army and lead Syria toward a democratic rule. It was presented as a moderate force allied with the secular opposition in exile, but in reality the FSA was never able to lure, or defeat, the rebel groups that suddenly appeared on the scene. It was comprised of former Syrian army officers whose defection, in the early days of the crisis, raised hopes of a quick collapse of the Damascus regime.
In reality, Washington never took the FSA and the SMC seriously. It hesitated to provide them with strategic weapons such as anti-tank and surface to air missiles. Most of the weapons that the FSA possessed came from Syrian army warehouses. And while the FSA was able to liberate vast areas in the north and east of the country, it was unable to stave off incursions by rival groups that were becoming more powerful and ambitious. The biggest threat came from two radical groups, Jabhat Al-Nusra, which is linked to Al-Qaeda, and the more extreme Islamic State in Iraq and Sham (ISIS). Both groups had attracted foreign fighters and did not hide their hatred to the West and their ambition to create a fundamentalist Islamic state in Syria. They also opposed the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and rejected any dealing with the Damascus regime.
Their appearance on the scene signaled an important milestone in the war in Syria. President Assad pushed through with his allegation that he was actually fighting Al- Qaeda and radicals. As the two groups engaged in fratricidal wars and committed atrocities his claim gained credibility. Russia also adopted Assad’s position and in the end managed to convince the US administration that these groups were the real enemy in Syria and not the regime.
US-Russian agreement few months ago meant that no military action would be taken in Syria. Both had agreed that a political settlement is needed and they pushed to revive the mission of UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to hold a peace conference in Geneva. But while the regime was willing to go to Geneva, the opposition was divided. Finally the SNC was convinced to attend even though Damascus had insisted that the future of President Assad would not be discussed under any circumstances. But the opposition was losing its value fast as the FSA abandoned ground leaving the scene to various militant groups with different agendas.
Now the unification of at least six rebel groups who are against Al-Nusra and ISIS has changed the perspective of the Obama administration and some of its allies. The Islamic Front, viewed as less radical than others, could become the only force on the ground that is capable of standing against Al-Nusra and ISIS. Unconfirmed reports this week spoke of contacts between Washington and the Islamic Front with the participation of the FSA. It is possible that a freak alliance between the FSA, the Islamic Front and even the regime, at a later stage, could take place to confront the threat of extremists now in control of many areas in Syria. This would prove to be a temporary alliance and it is yet unclear what Washington’s end goals would be. It is possible that the Obama administration may now believe that letting Assad stay is the best of many worst-case scenarios. The challenge is to convince US allies of the new direction. But that will not be easy. The Gulf countries view the survival of Assad as a triumph for Iran. There is a growing suspicion of US role and objectives. Syria had become a strategic battleground for many foreign parties. This is one reason why the fighting in Syria will not end any time soon. With the SNC losing value whom will the Assad regime be talking to in Geneva? The rules of engagement on the ground are changing fast and former enemies may find themselves fighting together to defeat a bigger evil — at least for now. The outcome will be the survival of Assad but the ultimate sacrifice will be that of the Syrian people who continue to die needlessly as their country is torn apart.

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